Lesson 16: Learn from peers in other countries: Connect with and learn from people facing similar challenges around the world.

Americans can be dangerously parochial, assuming that tyranny can't happen here. But we have much to learn from the experiences of other nations that have faced democratic crises. Snyder notes that during the 2016 election, "Ukrainian journalists who came to the American Midwest were surprised by the lack of knowledge about or interest in Ukraine" and observed many of the same propaganda tactics Russia had used against them being deployed here.

Building international connections provides vital perspective. Snyder advises maintaining friendships abroad, traveling (make sure to have a passport), and supporting global organizations. The fight to preserve freedom is a global struggle, and we can't prevail alone.

Section: 1, Chapter: 16

Author: Timothy Snyder

Unlike clumsy and unconvincing Soviet propaganda, modern Russian messaging aims not to inspire but to confuse, distract, and demoralize. Common themes:

• "Whataboutism" that deflects criticism by accusing the West of hypocrisy
• Amplifying voices that smear liberal societies as decadent and failing
• Portraying Russia as the defender of "traditional values" against liberal excess

Russians are fed a diet of nationalist triumphalism while "news" from democracies fixates on dysfunction, elite corruption, culture-war controversy, or civilizational decline.

Section: 1, Chapter: 3

Author: Anne Applebaum

Lesson 17: Listen for dangerous words: Be alert to rhetoric that demonizes certain groups or justifies violence and oppression.

Would-be tyrants often use the rhetoric of terrorism and extremism to justify dangerous power grabs. As Snyder writes, "The trick is to define terrorism and extremism as what those in power say they are, while leaving the details ambiguous and mutable." He points to Hitler's use of the Reichstag Fire to claim emergency powers and suspend civil liberties.

Similarly, Putin has exploited terrorism (sometimes likely abetted by his own regime) to consolidate his authoritarian rule in Russia. If a leader tries to seize broad new powers to fight vaguely defined threats, it's a serious red flag. Carefully evaluate any attempts to trade freedom for security.

Section: 1, Chapter: 17

Author: Timothy Snyder

America's founding story is deeply intertwined with the age of imperial mobility - the centuries when Europeans, powered by technological and immunological advantages, could conquer and expand globally. Key examples:

• The American Revolutionary War emerged from tensions in the British Empire after the Seven Years' War
• After independence, America expanded rapidly by seizing land from Natives and Mexico, taking the place of European imperial powers
• Southern plantation owners' wealth and political power relied on enslaved African labor
• The Founders had tremendous mobility to settle newly conquered lands, at the expense of Native displacement

Section: 1, Chapter: 3

Author: Timothy Snyder

While currency devaluation can seem like a gradual process, history shows it often happens abruptly during times of crisis. When government debts become unsustainable, devaluation is the only politically feasible solution. This happened in Weimar Germany in the 1920s, the U.S. and Europe in the 1930s, and many emerging economies in the late 20th century. Such rapid devaluations can destroy wealth stored in the currency, creating social and political unrest. Investors must be alert to signs of unsustainable debt and political disorder that could trigger a currency crisis.

Section: 1, Chapter: 4

Author: Ray Dalio

Chapter 10 explores the complex relationship between AI and authoritarian regimes. Harari argues that while AI might seem to favor centralized control, it also poses unique challenges to dictatorships.

The author introduces the concept of the "dictator's dilemma," where authoritarian leaders must balance the potential benefits of AI with the risks it poses to their own power. Such risks include the challenge of controlling AI systems that aren't susceptible to traditional forms of coercion, and the difficulty of maintaining ideological control in a world where AI can generate and disseminate information.

Section: 3, Chapter: 10

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

In the late stages of the internal cycle of conflict, countries often turn to populist and autocratic leaders who promise to restore order and take power away from entrenched elites.

This happened in the 1930s with the rise of fascist leaders like Hitler and Mussolini during the Great Depression. It also happened after the French Revolution with the rise of Napoleon, and in countless coups and revolutions in Latin America and Asia. Such leaders often come from outside traditional power structures and tap into resentment against the "establishment." While they can temporarily stabilize a country, they often end up leading it into damaging conflicts abroad. Being alert to the rise of populist autocrats is crucial to navigating the internal cycle.

Section: 1, Chapter: 5

Author: Ray Dalio

The anti-abortion movement has masterfully employed fetal imagery to further its cause since the 1980s. Fetal development is depicted as a seamless journey from conception to cherubic newborn. The fetus is shown as an independent being, with the woman's body erased. The humanity of the fetus is highlighted or downplayed as needed for maximum emotional impact.

The overall effect has been to change hearts and minds on fetal personhood. This makes sense, as the authors note, "Frequency of language use and imagery matters. The more frequent the language use or imagery, the more strengthening occurs." The fetus is now a symbol more than a biological reality.

Section: 1, Chapter: 5

Author: Rebecca Little, Colleen Long

Lesson 3: Beware the One-Party State and Defend Democratic Elections

Many 20th century tyrannical regimes began with a single party consolidating power, making democracy impossible for opponents. They exploit a specific moment to make political life untenable for their opposition. The lesson is to defend the integrity of the democratic system:

• Support a multi-party system
• Fight for fair election rules and voting rights
• Consider running for office yourself
• Participate in local and state elections while you can Defending democracy is an ongoing responsibility that requires action.

Section: 1, Chapter: 3

Author: Timothy Snyder

Compared to 20th century total censorship and mass violence, 21st century autocrats calibrate subtler ways to tarnish and intimidate critics, combining:

• Malign prosecution and stripped credentials to legally sideline opponents
• Manufactured scandals spread online to mar reputations
• Conspiracy theories alleging hidden foreign backing to undermine legitimacy
• Troll and bot armies that drown out or distort opposition messages
• Blackmail and threats to turn even family and friends into liabilities

The public, disillusioned, is left seeing honest brokers as no better than the ruling cabal.

Section: 1, Chapter: 5

Author: Anne Applebaum

While dictatorships concentrate power in one person or party, totalitarianism aims for complete control over every aspect of people's lives. This absolute centralization was enabled by 20th-century information technologies - radio, telephone, etc.

Joseph Stalin created a triple apparatus of state ministries, Communist Party structures, and secret police to dominate the Soviet Union. Powered by modern communications, these three branches monitored and terrorized the whole country, including each other. Stalin received daily reports from millions of informants while simultaneously spreading a cult of personality that made him synonymous with the state.

Section: 1, Chapter: 5

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

Unpredictability, the second form of freedom, emerges when sovereign individuals make choices based on their own unique combination of values. Key points:

• Values exist in a "fifth dimension" with its own logic that can seep into our world
• As we choose values over time, we gain the capacity to combine them in new ways
• Every sovereign person constantly faces choices between values in their own unique circumstances
• When sovereign people interact, they generate societywide unpredictability

This human unpredictability keeps us free from those who would oppress us by making us predictable. "Free people are predictable to themselves but unpredictable to authorities and machines."

Section: 1, Chapter: 2

Author: Timothy Snyder

When powerful oligarchs claim "free speech" to defend their ability to spread disinformation, they are abusing the concept to protect their power. Three key reasons:

1. Oligarchs face no personal risk for their speech - they are not critiquing the powerful but embodying power. Free speech exists to protect the vulnerable truth-teller, not the powerful liar.
2. Oligarchic speech is often not done by an individual whose body is on the line, but by untraceable networks of anonymous entities and bots. Free speech is for protecting real humans.
3. Powerful interests spreading lies through media they control is not "speaking truth to power" but "the powerful suppressing truth." The point of free speech is to allow criticism of unaccountable authority.

Section: 1, Chapter: 4

Author: Timothy Snyder

As Japan's economic and technological prowess grew, there was a noticeable shift in power dynamics between the U.S. and Japan. Akio Morita, the CEO of Sony, who had once admired American ingenuity, now criticized the U.S. for its declining manufacturing capabilities and short-term business practices.

In 1989, Morita co-authored a book titled The Japan That Can Say No with Shintaro Ishihara, a controversial nationalist politician. The book, which highlighted Japan's economic superiority and advocated for a more assertive role on the world stage, sparked anger and concern in the United States.

Ishihara's essays in the book were particularly provocative, calling for Japan to challenge American dominance and leverage its control over semiconductor technology to gain geopolitical leverage. He argued that Japan's dominance in memory chips was crucial to American military strength and that Japan should be willing to say no to U.S. demands.

The book's publication and the sentiments expressed by Morita and Ishihara highlighted a growing sense of nationalism in Japan and a willingness to challenge America's leadership position. This raised concerns in Washington about the future of the U.S.-Japan relationship and the potential for Japan to pursue a more independent foreign policy.

Section: 3, Chapter: 20

Author: Chris Miller

Some of the distinctive features of China's governance model and economic strategy:

• China's political system utilizes a merit-based civil service. Provincial and local officials are held accountable for meeting economic and social targets.
• Confucian values like social harmony, deference to authority, and the primacy of the collective over the individual continue to shape Chinese politics and society. This contrasts with the individualism prized in the West.
• In the economic realm, China has adopted a hybrid model blending market-based incentives and competition with strong state direction over key industries and the financial system. Capitalism subordinated to Communist Party control.
• China's leadership takes a long-term view of its development, with grand plans like the Belt and Road Initiative aiming to extend its economic reach across Eurasia. It has also focused heavily on boosting its technological capabilities to avoid dependence on the West.

Section: 2, Chapter: 12

Author: Ray Dalio

Since Roe v Wade was overturned in 2022, many states have enacted laws severely restricting or banning abortion. Some grant embryos/fetuses full legal personhood. This has created confusion and fear around miscarriage management, as the same procedures and medications are used for both miscarriage and elective abortion.

Particularly in communities of color, where medical mistrust due to racism is already high, this could lead to devastating public health impacts as pregnant people avoid care. Some may even be prosecuted for adverse outcomes like stillbirth, a return to draconian policing of pregnancy.

Section: 2, Chapter: 7

Author: Rebecca Little, Colleen Long

All societies have internal struggles between different socioeconomic classes over wealth and power. These conflicts intensify when there are large gaps in wealth and fundamental values between the classes. Wealth gaps naturally emerge in capitalist systems, as some benefit more from productivity gains than others.

Values gaps emerge as people coalesce into "tribes" based on factors like religion, ethnicity, urban/rural status, and politics. When a country experiences economic hardships on top of these gaps, it often leads to a breaking point of revolution and/or civil war to restructure the internal order. Managing these internal gaps is essential for countries to maintain stability and avoid self-destructive conflicts.

Section: 1, Chapter: 5

Author: Ray Dalio

China's aggressive push for self-sufficiency in semiconductors has sparked concern among US chip industry leaders. The country's massive subsidies and state-backed efforts to acquire technology threaten to erode America's competitive edge. This concern is heightened by the fact that many US chip companies heavily rely on the Chinese market, creating a complex dynamic where their biggest customer is also their biggest competitor.

Section: 7, Chapter: 49

Author: Chris Miller

The idea of negative freedom - merely getting government out of the way - is incoherent because it rejects the solidarity that makes freedom possible. Consider:

• Many "negative freedom" advocates want to defund public education, making it harder for the next generation to develop capabilities for freedom
• Adherents often reject any redistribution, allowing oligarchic concentrations of wealth to limit most people's economic freedom
• Defenders frequently deny the existence of systemic racism, dismissing the perspectives and experiences of minority groups

In each case, negative freedom assumes that one person or group's freedom is independent of everyone else's. But in reality, we can only be free together in solidarity. Freedom is a collective achievement of humanity that requires ongoing collective effort to sustain.

Section: 1, Chapter: 5

Author: Timothy Snyder

South Korea's rise as a semiconductor powerhouse, exemplified by Samsung, demonstrates the complex interplay between global competition and strategic partnerships. Samsung's founder, Lee Byung-Chul, recognized the opportunity presented by the U.S.-Japan DRAM wars of the 1980s and made a bold bet on semiconductors. With government support and access to cheap capital, Samsung entered the market and licensed technology from struggling American firms like Micron.

Ironically, Silicon Valley supported the rise of Korean DRAM producers as a way to counter Japan's dominance. This strategy, based on the principle of "my enemy's enemy is my friend," aimed to create a more balanced market and reduce Japan's threat to the U.S. chip industry. South Korea's success was also aided by the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which limited Japanese DRAM exports and allowed Korean firms to sell more chips at higher prices.

Section: 4, Chapter: 23

Author: Chris Miller