Silver argues that many of our counterterrorism efforts, like overzealous airport security, amount to "security theater" that fails to address the biggest risks. We have a bias toward stopping familiar threats, even as terrorists employ new tactics.

The TSA confiscates cigarette lighters while a terrorist could simply blow up the security line. We fear Muslims from certain countries while homegrown extremists plot undetected.

Based on a statistical analysis, Silver estimates a 3% chance of a 100,000+ fatality terror attack per decade, most likely from nuclear or biological weapons. Yet policymakers often focus more on foiling numerous small-scale conventional plots that cause less total harm.

Our brains weren't wired for such low-probability/high-impact events, so we struggle with the correct response. But we must honestly weigh the probabilities, however uncomfortable, and allocate our limited resources accordingly.

Section: 1, Chapter: 13

Author: Nate Silver

As Venezuela's crisis deepened under Maduro, the regime's salvation came from fellow autocracies:

• Russia provided bailouts, arms, and propaganda support. Rosneft took over PDVSA's defaulted assets.
• China offered billions in loans to help circumvent U.S. sanctions, in exchange for oil.
• Cuba sent security advisers to help contain unrest and track dissidents.
• Turkey facilitated illicit gold sales to generate revenue.
• Iran shipped gasoline and parts to restore Venezuela's collapsing refinery infrastructure.

This solidarity, based on shared authoritarianism rather than ideology, helped the unpopular Maduro cling to power despite Western pressure, hyperinflation, and chronic shortages.

Section: 1, Chapter: 2

Author: Anne Applebaum

Autocratic regimes are increasingly reaching across borders to intimidate, abduct, or assassinate dissidents with impunity, flouting international law:

• Russia has poisoned defectors in Britain and shot exiles in Germany
• Iran has kidnapped journalists from Iraq and plotted hits on U.S. soil
• Saudi Arabia murdered Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey and abducted a prince from France
• Rwanda has strangled opponents in Belgium and shot them in South Africa

Emboldened autocrats now barely bother to hide such crimes, calculating that Western law enforcement can't or won't retaliate. Lack of accountability only encourages escalation.

Section: 1, Chapter: 4

Author: Anne Applebaum

The war in Syria incubated new models of deniable force projection by Russia, Iran and others, through proxies and private military companies (PMCs):

• Russia's Wagner Group, a deniable cutout for Russian military and intelligence, debuted covert combat capabilities
• Iran deployed Shiite militias like Hezbollah alongside "advisers" to augment Assad's forces
• Both exploited mercenary units' potential as business ventures, granting them access to oil and mineral rights

Proxy warfare's semi-corporate innovations make military meddling harder than ever to police.

Section: 1, Chapter: 4

Author: Anne Applebaum

The major axes of the continents vary:

• The Americas are longest from north to south (9,000 miles vs only 3,000 miles east to west)
• Africa is also longer from north to south than from east to west
• Eurasia's major axis is east-west

These differences proved highly consequential. In general, it's easier for crops, livestock, knowledge and technologies to spread along the same latitude (east-west) than between different latitudes (north-south). That's because locations at the same latitude tend to have similar day lengths, seasons, and climates, suiting them for the same agricultural package.

Section: 2, Chapter: 10

Author: Jared Diamond

Compared to 20th century total censorship and mass violence, 21st century autocrats calibrate subtler ways to tarnish and intimidate critics, combining:

• Malign prosecution and stripped credentials to legally sideline opponents
• Manufactured scandals spread online to mar reputations
• Conspiracy theories alleging hidden foreign backing to undermine legitimacy
• Troll and bot armies that drown out or distort opposition messages
• Blackmail and threats to turn even family and friends into liabilities

The public, disillusioned, is left seeing honest brokers as no better than the ruling cabal.

Section: 1, Chapter: 5

Author: Anne Applebaum

Levitt and Dubner are skeptical that carbon mitigation alone can slow global warming. They argue:

• Current technologies like wind/solar are too expensive and limited to replace fossil fuels
• Developing countries like China and India will keep burning coal to fuel growth
• Even aggressive carbon cuts will have modest impact due to CO2's long atmospheric life

The authors compare carbon mitigation to "bringing a garden hose to a fight against a forest fire." They believe more aggressive solutions will be needed alongside emission reductions to meaningfully move the needle. While not discounting the value of conservation, Levitt and Dubner argue it is not a complete solution.

Section: 1, Chapter: 5

Author: Steven D. Levitt , Stephen J. Dubner

Huawei, a Chinese telecom giant, has emerged as a major player in the global tech industry, offering advanced telecom equipment, smartphones, and other tech infrastructure. The company's success, built on a combination of R&D investment, efficient manufacturing, and government support, has raised concerns in the U.S. and other countries, as it is seen as a strategic challenge to American technological leadership and a potential security risk.

Section: 7, Chapter: 46

Author: Chris Miller

The US has weaponized the dollar's global primacy to restrict China's access to the international financial system. This has incentivized China to develop alternative payment channels and make its own currency more internationally accessible. China holds over $1 trillion in US Treasury debt, which some fear it could dump in a crisis. This would be highly disruptive to global markets.

More broadly, the US-China trade war and moves toward "decoupling" disrupt the intricate supply chains that have fueled global prosperity. Businesses face pressure to relocate out of China. A world split into rival economic blocs would be less efficient and dynamic. A key question is whether China can reduce its dependence on Western technologies in critical areas like semiconductors. The risk is a destabilizing race for technological superiority with military applications.

Section: 2, Chapter: 13

Author: Ray Dalio

The external order between countries is fundamentally different from internal order within countries. Internationally, there are no reliable mechanisms to adjudicate disputes or enforce agreements. Countries ultimately pursue their interests through raw power - economic, financial, and military.

When one country becomes dominant, it can impose its preferred external order on others. But this order lasts only as long as that country remains dominant. When a rival country becomes powerful enough to challenge the dominant one, and has incompatible interests, it leads to a struggle that reshapes the external order. This is how the British external order of the 19th century gave way to the American order of the 20th century.

Section: 1, Chapter: 6

Author: Ray Dalio

Continued rapid technological progress will bring immense benefits but also risks in the 2020s. Artificial intelligence could be as disruptive as the Industrial Revolution, while automation could displace workers faster than new jobs appear. The next decade is also likely to see at least one major global economic crisis, based on historical patterns. The huge debt loads in the US and China make them vulnerable. Dalio expects more money-printing by central banks, which risks currency debasement.

Geopolitically, the US and China will remain the two dominant powers, even as their relationship grows more contentious. Outright military conflict is unlikely but a "Cold War"-style standoff is a real possibility. Other powers like Russia and India will jockey for advantage. At the same time, global problems like climate change and pandemics will require more international cooperation, even as such cooperation becomes harder due to geopolitical competition. The ultimate trajectory, Dalio argues, depends on the quality of leadership in the key countries.

Section: 3, Chapter: 14

Author: Ray Dalio

The 1990s marked a turning point for Taiwan's role in the semiconductor industry. Recognizing the limitations of being primarily an assembly hub, Taiwan's leaders, particularly K.T. Li, sought to move towards higher-value chip fabrication. This strategic shift was driven by several factors, including the need to stay ahead of China's growing manufacturing capabilities and the desire to capture a larger share of the industry's profits. The establishment of TSMC, spearheaded by Morris Chang, was central to this vision. TSMC's innovative foundry model, which focused solely on manufacturing chips designed by other companies, revolutionized the industry and propelled Taiwan to the forefront of advanced chip production.

Section: 5, Chapter: 29

Author: Chris Miller

Dalioprovides an overview of China's modern history, a period marked by foreign subjugation, revolution, and eventual resurgence:

• In the 19th century, the Qing Dynasty went into severe decline as the British and other Western powers established spheres of influence in China. The "Century of Humiliation" saw China lose control over vast swathes of territory.
• The 20th century brought political upheaval, with the fall of the Qing, years of civil war, and the eventual victory of Mao Zedong's Communists in 1949. Mao consolidated power but his radical policies like the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution caused immense suffering.
• After Mao's death in 1976, Deng Xiaoping launched China on a path of economic reform and opening up. Through careful management and experimentation, China achieved rapid growth and development over the 1980s-2000s.
• In the 21st century, China has emerged as a major global power, with the world's second-largest economy and an increasingly assertive foreign policy under President Xi Jinping. But it faces challenges like high debt levels, inequality, and strategic rivalry with the US.

Section: 2, Chapter: 12

Author: Ray Dalio

Russia has made "multipolarity" its byword for a desired global order without the moral straitjacket of U.S. hegemony and liberal democratic norms, resonating with sovereignty-obsessed autocrats and post-colonial states.

In practice, Russian "multipolarity" has meant:

• Invading Ukraine and annexing territory by force
• Backing coup leaders and mercenary-linked warlords in Africa
• Courting illiberal nationalists and far-right extremists in Europe and the Americas

Its practical agenda is to free autocrats from external restraints or accountability to their citizens.

Section: 1, Chapter: 4

Author: Anne Applebaum

The concept of human space-time contingency highlights how the impact of geographical factors on human societies varies dramatically based on the specific social and technological context. Saudi Arabia provides a prime example:

• Oil deposits formed in the region 160 million years ago, but were only discovered in 1938.
• At that time, Saudi Arabia was among the poorest countries, with limited use of modern technology.
• The internal combustion engine and 20th-century industrialization abruptly made these oil reserves immensely valuable.
• Within a few decades, Saudi Arabia became one of the richest and most powerful nations.

This rapid reversal of fortunes wasn't determined solely by geography or human factors, but by their interaction at a specific juncture.

Section: 1, Chapter: 8

Author: Brian Klaas

Chapter 8 provides a high-level overview of the key events and patterns in world history over the last 500 years. Some key points:

• In 1500, the world was very different - countries as we know them didn't exist, the world seemed much larger, religions and religious leaders were more powerful, and the world was less egalitarian.
• Major empires from 1500-1800 included the Habsburg dynasty in Europe, the Ming dynasty in China, the Mughal Empire in India, and the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East.
• Key events shaping the world included the Commercial Revolution starting in the 1100s, the Renaissance in the 1300s-1600s, the Age of Exploration starting in the 1400s, the Reformation in the 1500s, and the 30 Years' War followed by a new world order in 1648.

Section: 2, Chapter: 8

Author: Ray Dalio

Following the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the Chinese Communist Party sought to eliminate the democratic "spiritual pollution" that spurred protesters. As the internet emerged, it constructed a pervasive system of online controls far exceeding a mere "Great Firewall":

• Social media is engineered for built-in surveillance
• Vague laws criminalize posting anything "endangering national security" or "detrimental to the honor and interests of the state"

The goal is to guide mass online discussion, marginalize dissent, and squelch organizing - a model gaining traction among autocracies worldwide.

Section: 1, Chapter: 3

Author: Anne Applebaum

When former coup leader Hugo Chávez was elected Venezuela's president in 1998, he vowed to replace the corrupt old elite. But when his chief of police first presented evidence of graft by Chávez allies, the president fired the whistleblower.

The incident taught officials that loyalty would be rewarded with impunity to steal. Over time, Venezuela's Bolivarian socialist system enabled massive embezzlement, siphoning billions from the state oil company PDVSA into foreign accounts. Currency manipulation spawned a "boligarchy" of regime cronies who exploited distorted exchange rates. As in Russia, corruption metastasized from an aberration into the regime's operating system.

Section: 1, Chapter: 2

Author: Anne Applebaum

Modern autocrats grasp that their survival depends on weakening democracy as an idea and political model everywhere, not just in their own realms. Toward that end:

• Russia works across military, energy, cyber and information domains to destabilize Europe and commandeer its political debate
• China locks in influence over global media narratives and industrial assets while co-opting UN leadership posts
• Regional powers like Iran and Venezuela build sanctions-busting networks of trade and technology while aiding each other's repression

Autocrats increasingly coordinate and learn from each other's tools and tactics. Any victories against pro-democracy forces reverberate to embolden the autocratic bloc as a whole.

Section: 1, Chapter: 5

Author: Anne Applebaum

Dalio explores the evolving relationship between the US and China, which has moved from cooperation to confrontation in recent years. The US and China developed a close economic relationship in the 1980s-2000s, with the US providing a market for cheap Chinese exports while China recycled its surpluses into US debt securities. But many in the US saw this as unfair.

Under Xi Jinping, China has become more assertive in challenging the US-led global order. US leaders have identified China as the top threat to American primacy. A bipartisan consensus has emerged in favor of "getting tough" with Beijing.

The two powers are now engaged in a multi-front struggle encompassing trade, technology, finance, and geopolitics. The US has imposed tariffs on China, sanctioned Chinese tech champions, and sought to limit China's access to the dollar system. China has responded with its own restrictions. Taiwan remains the most dangerous flashpoint, as China views the island as a core interest while the US maintains a policy of "strategic ambiguity" over whether it would defend Taiwan militarily.

Section: 2, Chapter: 13

Author: Ray Dalio

For countries and individuals, wealth and power accumulate when production exceeds consumption. Being able to produce more valuable goods and services than you consume is what allows you to save and invest for the future. Likewise, great empires and economies emerge when they are highly productive in creating things the world wants.

The most powerful countries have the economic output and trade surpluses to finance strong militaries and global influence. When countries turn to over-consumption and under-production, running chronic deficits, it inevitably leads to a decline in relative wealth and power. Investors must watch whether countries are living within their means or borrowing excessively from the future.

Section: 1, Chapter: 6

Author: Ray Dalio

In his first years as president, Putin paid lip service to democracy, declaring in speeches that only a democratic state could balance interests and ensure rule of law, free elections and human rights in Russia.

In practice, he constructed a Potemkin democracy designed to fool foreigners while allowing him to monopolize power. Elections featured no real competition. The market operated only within Kremlin-set limits. Putin could destroy any company that crossed him, as the expropriation of Yukos by state-owned Rosneft showed. Yet Rosneft still attracted major Western investment, showing the willful blindness of those who profited from the charade.

Section: 1, Chapter: 1

Author: Anne Applebaum

The Soviet Union's pursuit of semiconductor dominance extended beyond building its own "Silicon Valley" and involved extensive espionage efforts. The KGB's Directorate T was specifically tasked with acquiring Western technology, and Soviet spies actively sought to steal chip designs and manufacturing equipment. While they achieved some successes, such as obtaining a Texas Instruments integrated circuit and replicating American microprocessors, the "copy it" strategy ultimately proved ineffective. The rapid pace of innovation in the semiconductor industry meant that stolen designs quickly became outdated, and the lack of understanding of the intricate manufacturing processes limited the Soviets' ability to produce high-quality chips at scale.

Section: 2, Chapter: 8

Author: Chris Miller